Toby Watt Senior Economist

Toby runs the health and care demand work for the REAL Centre: focusing on in depth econometric analysis of large data sets. In a new programme of work, in partnership with the University of Liverpool, we are developing a microsimulation model of health care demand. This will analyse trends in non-communicable disease, treatment and health care utilisation across the NHS. This model will include the ever changing inputs of population risk factors, health care technology, improvement in health care outcomes and multi-morbidity. Toby has developed expertise in the use of primary care data, primarily in the analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care utilisation using the patient level data. Under the Bloomsbury Colleges scholarship, Toby is completing a PhD part time on Public Health Economics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He is analysing the impact of food and drink price promotions on population health. Toby worked in competition economics at a consultancy for two years before moving to the Health Foundation. He has been a tutor in econometrics for the MSc Economics course at Birkbeck, University of London. Toby gained a first in Economics from the University of Bristol and a distinction in the MSc Economics programme at University College London. |
Publications
Research report
Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s
This research looks at how much health spending would need to rise to provide the level of service...
Research report
The path to sustainability
This report analyses the demand and cost pressures facing the NHS in Wales up to 2019/20 and in the...
Watt T, Charlesworth A, Gershlick B. (2019) Health and care spending and its value, past, present and future. Future Healthcare Journal, 6(2), 99-105. doi:10.7861/futurehosp.6-2-99
Watt, T., Beckert, W., Smith, R., & Cornelsen, L. (2020). Reducing consumption of unhealthy foods and beverages through banning price promotions: What is the evidence and will it work? Public Health Nutrition, 23(12), 2228-2233. doi:10.1017/S1368980019004956
Latest articles
Blog
How can we think long term when the issues facing the health service are so urgent?
Toby Watt rounds up the REAL Centre’s current work to reflect on how best to strike the balance...
Chart
Use of primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic: May 2021 update
There have been dramatic shifts in primary care activities and outcomes in response to the COVID-19...
Chart
Use of primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic
There have been dramatic shifts in primary care activities and outcomes in response to the COVID-19...
Chart
Understanding excess deaths: variation in the impact of COVID-19 between countries, regions and localities
This analysis compares the impact of COVID-19 in different countries, regions and localities through...
Blog
Early insight into the impacts of COVID-19 on care for people with long-term conditions
The Health Foundation has supported an online YouGov survey, designed by the Resolution Foundation,...
Long read
Returning NHS waiting times to 18 weeks for routine treatment
In January 2020 there was a backlog of over 1,000,000 patients awaiting elective surgery which...
Long read
What should be done to fix the crisis in social care?
Five messages for government about priorities and options for social care reform in England.
Briefing
Investing in The NHS long term plan
A briefing analysing the challenges for health and social care following the publication of the NHS...
Blog
The real cost of a fair adult social care system
Anita Charlesworth and Toby Watt look at the funding and workforce challenges facing the adult...
Briefing
NHS at 70: What’s the problem with social care, and why do we need to do better?
The second of five briefings to inform and encourage a national conversation about the past,...
Blog
The ‘do nothing’ option: How public spending on social care in England fell by 13% in 5 years
Funding for the adult social care system in England was at its highest point in 2009/10 with total...
Research report
Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s
This research looks at how much health spending would need to rise to provide the level of service...
Analysis
Social care funding options
Health Foundation financial modelling looking at various funding options for social care, how much...
Blog
Did funding cuts in health and social care budgets lead to excess mortality in England?
Does the latest research into the impact of austerity in health and social care on mortality...
Blog
Why were nurse bursaries removed?
The surprise election has reignited the debate over the removal of student nurse bursaries, only a...
Briefing
The social care funding gap: implications for local health care reform
This briefing offers an analysis of the size of the gap in adult social care funding in England – at...
Blog
Mental health care reform in Wales
The Health Foundation’s latest analysis of the funding and demand pressures facing the NHS in Wales...
Research report
The path to sustainability
This report analyses the demand and cost pressures facing the NHS in Wales up to 2019/20 and in the...
Research project
Fiscal sustainability of the NHS in Wales
This project will provide medium- and long-term projections of spending pressures facing the NHS in...
Blog
Will removing bursaries for student nurses actually lead to more nursing staff?
Demand pressures on the NHS rise every year. To cope with these pressures and provide the same...
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