Looking for the future

My work at the Health Foundation has revolved around the future of health and health care and how the changes of the external environment will impact this. I ventured to York on a chilly Saturday morning where 25 individuals, representative of the local population, gathered for a workshop to envision what York will look like in 2040 as part of the Future Cities Dialogue, an initiative by Innovate UK and Sciencewise. Six industries  sparked great debate amongst participants: food, waste, transport, energy, water and health care.

The day was set up to challenge people’s perspectives and stretch their thinking over what can result from fundamental changes in each industry. I focused my attention towards the food industry, to see if our global choices on food was uncooperative, the transport industry, to confirm if connectivity meant opportunity, and last but certainly not least, the health care industry, to see if we are ready to move to a technological age of health care and forgo human contact.

First, to food

I found myself amongst a  variety of characters within the seven people surrounding me, talking, with great passion, about how the food cycle shown is a representation of how society has failed the planet in our greed to eat and drink whatever we desire.

It was enlightening to oversee a zealous conversation arguing whether our rights to eat what we wish and where it’s from are justified, even if, for example, Argentinian steak promotes the emissions of methane and carbon dioxide through raising cattle and importing it to the UK. Is it time we seriously consider vegetarianism and home grown produce to combat both? Or does this infringe upon the choices we have become accustomed to?

Next stop, transport

A chicken and egg debate of how connectivity and opportunity allow York to prosper was sparked by one possible future: a devolved transport system, inspired by devolution in Manchester. It sounds sensible - tailored transport across the country - however, when the group learnt that is was going to be funded by the local tax base, it was strongly opposed. York is home to major employers like Aviva and Hiscox; would York have such opportunities if their tax base couldn’t afford connectivity as elaborate as the South East?

Lastly, health

Health care, unsurprisingly, elicited passionate declarations about problems the group faced today, namely mental health facilities, and whether they are truly accessible to all. Much of my work has put big data in the spotlight, but three big issues came to a head in discussing it: privacy, information and intimacy.

Health is a treasured commodity; to share our health data and treat it like a currency would feel undignified and remove the last dregs of privacy we associate with our personal information, however, for enriched research and targeted treatment, does the ends justify the means?

The group were dubious about the privacy granted in a data driven medical world, suggesting vulnerability to attack, but is this any worse than us leaving the house and being subject to mass surveillance? Moving forward, more health care on demand, be it via apps or devices, without visiting a doctor, would satisfy our health needs at 2am or whilst we’re busy juggling our work and family lives. Fear can however be a driving factor of whether people seek medical help. Would digital health care remove this and overcome the anxiety of initially seeking treatment in a formal setting, or would it take away the intimacy of the doctor patient relationship to pick up on the silences and address the unaddressed?

Health is the defining factor in allowing us to have a future where we dream of growing our families and enjoying the planet. To do this we need to think about the future of the world around us, involving the public, much like in this workshop, who are knowledgeable and eager to talk about the world that impacts them.

Today there is a broad consensus that the real determinants of health largely sit outside of health care and that a wider set of resources will need to be mobilised to maintain and improve health. At the Health Foundation we are extending our work to look more broadly at the wider determinants of health – the factors that shape where we live, learn, work and play. As a society, we  need to ask ourselves if we can sustainably provide quality food and water, if our use of energy and disposal of waste is harnessing the planets resources tactically, and if through transport we can connect all of us to opportunity. To grant of ourselves good health, both mentally and physically, we must connect the dots that are health’s wider determinants, from which we can build a promising future.  

The workshop in York was one of 3 workshops carried out in January by Ipsos MORI as part of the Future Cities Dialogue for Innovate UK and Sciencewise. This project aims to understand potential for systems integration so that Innovate UK can improve urban resilience and UK business success. As part of this project, Ipsos MORI have also carried out a summit with participants from Glasgow and London as well as York, and also from an online community. A final analysis from the research team at Ipsos MORI will draw together their findings from the workshops and online community, and is set to be released in Spring.

Tanuj works in the strategy team, exploring the future of healthcare and investigating innovations in the health sphere. He can be contacted at Tanuj.aggarwal@health.org.uk