Understanding excess mortality: international comparisons COVID-19 chart series

COVID-19 deaths are defined and recorded differently across countries, meaning that international comparisons of coronavirus (COVID-19) deaths can be misleading. 

The number of excess deaths is a better measure than COVID-19 deaths of the pandemic’s overall impact on mortality. It is calculated as the difference between deaths in a given time period and the number usually expected (for example, based on historic trends) and does not depend on how COVID-19 deaths are recorded.

This chart is an updated version of a chart that appears in Understanding excess mortality, which explores why excess deaths as a proportion of usual deaths is a fairer way to compare COVID-19 deaths internationally.  

This updated chart shows that:

• In England and Wales there were 113% more deaths than usual in the week ending 17 April 2020 – the peak week. Since then the number of excess deaths has steadily decreased towards pre-outbreak levels with the latest data for the week ending 22 May 2020 showing 24% more excess deaths than expected.
• This peak in England and Wales was only exceeded by Spain which had a peak of 153% (this figure was recently revised upwards by 40 percentage points). Italy is the only other country with a peak of more than 100%. In Spain and Italy the peak week and subsequent decrease in excess deaths were 2 weeks ahead of England and Wales.
• The peak week figures for France and Sweden were much lower, at 55% and 46%, respectively. The figures are similar despite quite different approaches to lock-down.
• The peak in Germany was significantly lower than observed for the other European countries at 12% more deaths than usual in the week ending 10 April 2020.