In this briefing we set out our analysis of the funding issues facing the NHS. The briefing presents the Health Foundation projection that funding pressures on the NHS will increase to £65bn above inflation by 2030/31. If successive governments are to meet these pressures NHS funding needs to grow slightly faster than GDP (2.9% a year compared to 2.3% a year forecast increase in GDP).

Updated data: We updated some of the charts and tables from this work in May 2015 when new data was available. View a slidepack of the updated charts and tables.

The briefing draws on four accompanying overviews that go into more detail about NHS finance in the following four areas:

Audio slideshow by Anita Charlesworth, Chief Economist, of the key points from this research


Explore the key charts

Source: Author’s calculations, using data from: Public Sector Statistical Analyses 2014 (HM Treasury), Fiscal Facts: Spending by function (Institute of Fiscal Studies), OHE Guide to UK Health and Health Care Statistics 2013 (Hawe E and Cockcroft L), UK National Accounts – The Blue Book (Office for National Statistics), Quarterly National Accounts (Office for National Statistics), GDP deflators at market prices, and money GDP (HM Treasury).

Note: GDP deflators for 1949/50 to 1954/55 were estimated by using the GDP deflators available for the calendar years 1949 to 1954, calculating the yearly change in GDP deflator for these years and applying them to the fiscal years.

Source: Public Sector Statistical Analyses 2014 (HM Treasury); Autumn Statement 2014 (HM Treasury); ONS population estimates.

Slidepack of all the charts and tables from this work

The Health Foundation will be publishing a series of briefings and blogs in the run-up to the 2015 general election, to inform the ongoing public debate on health care policy. These materials will analyse and discuss key issues raised by political parties and others about health care policy and the NHS.

Further reading

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