NHS workforce projections 2022

Workforce shortages were the single biggest challenge facing the NHS well before COVID-19. But the pandemic has driven increased demand for health care, growing waiting lists and a substantial elective care backlog, while impacting negatively on staff wellbeing and absence. This makes workforce planning all the more urgent, particularly in light of ongoing cost-of-living pressures, and in terms of patient safety and satisfaction.

This report provides the REAL Centre’s projections of future NHS workforce supply – the number of staff likely to be in post – and demand, the number of staff likely to be required. It focuses on registered nurses across the NHS HCHS and general practice, GPs and other patient care staff in general practice. In our analysis, a gap between projected workforce supply and demand indicates that the NHS is unlikely to be able to deliver 2018/19 standards of health care using existing care models. Our analysis underscores five key workforce planning themes before drawing out the wider systemic implications for the NHS.

Overall, our report lays bare the scale of the challenge facing policymakers in addressing endemic NHS workforce shortages. Although there is no ‘silver bullet’ solution to England’s workforce shortages, this report adds to a growing body of evidence signalling the need for a comprehensive, fully funded and long-term workforce strategy.

Note: The first version of this report, published on 20 July 2022, contained an error affecting the GP projections. This has now been corrected, and an updated version was published on 25 July 2022.