• The REAL Centre is working in partnership with the NCD Prevention and Food Policy Research Group at the University of Liverpool to develop a microsimulation model to project health and care activity and expenditure.

  • The analysis will help us to better understand the relationship between risk factors (such as smoking and diet) and multiple chronic conditions, understand trends in health care treatment and outcomes such as mortality and allow us to explore the impact of policies to reduce risk factors.

  • The project will help provide data on trends in the incidence and prevalence of chronic conditions and explore how chronic conditions drive health care activity and demand. This will help us understand what drives variations in health care activity, costs and patient outcomes, and what the key features are of well-managed care.

  • This project is expected to run for at least three years, until 2023. 

Past research by the Health Foundation focused on understanding how increased demand was building pressure in the health care system. These pressures have developed through an increase in medical technology, population size and growth in the number of people living with multiple long-term conditions.  

Our publication, Securing the Future, included results from our projection model, which helped inform the five-year funding settlement announced in May 2018. This model projected future health care costs and activity, based on population ageing and changing prevalence of NCDs, as well as issues affecting health care supply such as investment in new hospitals and medical equipment, labour costs and productivity. Each of these factors have direct implications for health care costs and activity, and feed into a range of other policy decisions, from public health to workforce planning.   

Continuing this challenging research area, the REAL Centre is working in partnership with the NCD Prevention and Food Policy Research Group at the University of Liverpool. This ambitious project, set for at least three years, will build on this work by focusing on the incidence and prevalence of chronic conditions and other NCDs and the associated health care costs, now and in the future. 

We will be developing a microsimulation model to understand how trends in risk factors (such as smoking and diet) affect prevalence of chronic conditions, and to explore the impact of policies to reduce risk factors. As well as producing projections for health care demand, our work on this project will help provide data on trends in the incidence and prevalence of chronic conditions, and how chronic conditions drive health care activity and costs across different points of delivery. We will study variability in health care activity, costs and patient outcomes to help us understand what drives this variation, including the features of well-managed care.  

REAL Centre contact

Thumbnail

Toby Watt

Senior Economist

Further reading

Research report

Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s

May 2018
Research report

This research looks at how much health spending would need to rise to provide the level of service...

Chart

Use of primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic

Chart

There have been dramatic shifts in primary care activities and outcomes in response to the COVID-19...

Discover

REAL Centre

Discover

The Health Foundation’s REAL Centre is here to support better long-term decision making in health...

REAL Centre

Keep in touch

Sign up to get the latest news and updates from the REAL Centre straight to your inbox.
Kjell-bubble-diagramArtboard 101 copy

Get social

Can integrated care reduce hospital use? Yes, but it can take time. Our #ImprovementAnalytics Unit analysis finds… https://t.co/Uc5FAKCOCV

Follow us on Twitter
Kjell-bubble-diagramArtboard 101

Work with us

We look for talented and passionate individuals as everyone at the Health Foundation has an important role to play.

View current vacancies
Artboard 101 copy 2

The Q community

Q is an initiative connecting people with improvement expertise across the UK.

Find out more