Health and social care workforce
Workforce shortages are the biggest challenge facing the NHS and social care in England. This issue has been exacerbated by the pandemic, which has exposed the dangers of running a system with significant shortages. The Health Foundation’s REAL Centre puts into context the scale of the workforce challenge, using independent evidence and research to support better long-term decision making.
This page showcases our analysis of the issues impacting the health and care workforce. It will be regularly updated as new research is published, including our forthcoming landmark report exploring projections of NHS workforce demand and supply over the next decade.
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Staffing shortages are an existential threat to the future of the NHS.
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The NHS staffing gap in trusts in England alone stands at around 110,000 full-time equivalents, but new research from the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre outlines how this gap is likely to grow substantially by 2030.
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Workforce shortages are also endemic in adult social care in England, with recent data from Skills for Care suggesting there were over 100,000 vacancies in the sector on an average day in 2020/21.
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A comprehensive long-term workforce strategy is crucial and must be backed by investment.
Workforce supply and demand projections
Our analysts estimate how the demand for NHS staff might grow in the coming years alongside projections of NHS staff supply.
Working paper
How many NHS workers will we need over the coming decade?
The latest REAL Centre working paper examines how many full-time equivalent staff the NHS in England...
Report
Health and social care funding projections 2021
The REAL Centre sets out projections of the funding the NHS and social care system in England may...
Chart
How much does the NHS and social care workforce need to grow by over the next decade to meet demand?
In the next decade the NHS workforce needs to grow twice as fast and the social care workforce four...
Report
Building the NHS nursing workforce in England
The current shortfall of nurses represents a major long-term and growing problem for the NHS. This...
Pay
Our analysts examine the latest data on NHS staff earnings, exploring past trends and assessing the system underlying NHS staff pay determination.
Report
Nurses’ pay over the long term: what next?
We examine long-term trends in UK nurses' pay and ask whether the system for deciding nurses’ pay...
Press release
NHS pay offer is 'treading water'
Our response to the announcement of a 3% pay rise for NHS Agenda for Change staff.
Chart
How has NHS staff pay changed over the past decade?
Over the past 10 years, there has been very little change in overall average basic pay for NHS...
Modelling
The REAL Centre works in partnership with leading experts and academics to research and model the future demand for care and the supply of workers entering the workforce.
Project
Nurse supply model
This project aims to enable projections of the future nursing workforce supply in England under...
Working paper
Nurse supply model: overview
This working paper provides an overview of the context for nurse supply in England and the various...
Blogs
Read commentary on the NHS and social care workforce from our experts.
Blog
What action is required to make NHS workforce shortages a thing of the past?
What is needed to overcome short-termism in workforce planning for the NHS and social care? Anita...
Blog
What might COVID-19 mean for England’s nurse supply?
What are the long-term challenges for nurse retention and recruitment following the pandemic? Nihar...
Blog
Staff shortages left the NHS vulnerable to the COVID-19 storm
We are seeing the consequences of years of workforce planning failures, says Anita Charlesworth.
Blog
Addressing the nursing shortfall
Nihar Shembavnekar introduces the REAL Centre's nurse supply model, and explains why we hope it will...
Media and spokespeople
Browse our recent press releases and get in touch with our spokespeople on the NHS and social care workforce.
Press release
NHS is again turning to non-UK workers to plug large gaps in the nursing workforce
Our response to the Nursing and Midwifery Council’s annual nursing register and HEE budget...
Press release
MPs vote wrong way on social care cap and workforce planning
The Health Foundation's response to House of Commons votes on the Health and Care Bill.
Our workforce spokespeople
Profile
Anita Charlesworth
Anita Charlesworth is Director of Research and REAL Centre (Research and Economic Analysis for the...
Profile
Elaine Kelly
Elaine Kelly joined the Health Foundation in October 2018 as Head of Economics Research.
Profile
Nihar Shembavnekar
Nihar Shembavnekar joined the Health Foundation in February 2020 as an Economist.
Profile
Research
Explore our research projects focusing on the NHS and social care workforce
Programme
Efficiency Research Programme
This programme awards research teams for projects looking into issues of efficiency and...
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