Toby runs the health and care demand work for the REAL Centre: focusing on in depth econometric analysis of large data sets. In a new programme of work, in partnership with the University of Liverpool, we are developing a microsimulation model of health care demand. This will analyse trends in non-communicable disease, treatment and health care utilisation across the NHS. This model will include the ever changing inputs of population risk factors, health care technology, improvement in health care outcomes and multi-morbidity.

We hope this model will help us to understand the changing burden of disease in the UK, allowing health, social care and public policy makers to make informed long-term decisions about the future health of the population.

Toby has developed expertise in the use of primary care data, primarily in the analysis of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on primary care utilisation using the patient level data.

Under the Bloomsbury Colleges scholarship, Toby is completing a PhD part time on Public Health Economics at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He is analysing the impact of food and drink price promotions on population health. 

Toby worked in competition economics at a consultancy for two years before moving to the Health Foundation. He has been a tutor in econometrics for the MSc Economics course at Birkbeck, University of London. 

Toby gained a first in Economics from the University of Bristol and a distinction in the MSc Economics programme at University College London. 

Publications

Research report

Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s

May 2018
Research report

This research looks at how much health spending would need to rise to provide the level of service...

Research report

The path to sustainability

October 2016
Research report

This report analyses the demand and cost pressures facing the NHS in Wales up to 2019/20 and in the...

Watt T, Charlesworth A, Gershlick B. (2019) Health and care spending and its value, past, present and future. Future Healthcare Journal, 6(2), 99-105. doi:10.7861/futurehosp.6-2-99

Watt, T., Beckert, W., Smith, R., & Cornelsen, L. (2020). Reducing consumption of unhealthy foods and beverages through banning price promotions: What is the evidence and will it work? Public Health Nutrition, 23(12), 2228-2233. doi:10.1017/S1368980019004956

Latest articles

Chart

Use of primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic: May 2021 update

Chart

There have been dramatic shifts in primary care activities and outcomes in response to the COVID-19...

REAL Centre

Chart

Use of primary care during the COVID-19 pandemic

Chart

There have been dramatic shifts in primary care activities and outcomes in response to the COVID-19...

Chart

Understanding excess deaths: variation in the impact of COVID-19 between countries, regions and localities

Chart

This analysis compares the impact of COVID-19 in different countries, regions and localities through...

Blog

Early insight into the impacts of COVID-19 on care for people with long-term conditions

Blog

The Health Foundation has supported an online YouGov survey, designed by the Resolution Foundation,...

Briefing

Investing in The NHS long term plan

Briefing

A briefing analysing the challenges for health and social care following the publication of the NHS...

Blog

The real cost of a fair adult social care system

Blog

Anita Charlesworth and Toby Watt look at the funding and workforce challenges facing the adult...

Briefing

NHS at 70: What’s the problem with social care, and why do we need to do better?

Briefing

The second of five briefings to inform and encourage a national conversation about the past,...

Blog

The ‘do nothing’ option: How public spending on social care in England fell by 13% in 5 years

Blog

Funding for the adult social care system in England was at its highest point in 2009/10 with total...

Research report

Securing the future: funding health and social care to the 2030s

Research report

This research looks at how much health spending would need to rise to provide the level of service...

Analysis

Social care funding options

Analysis

Health Foundation financial modelling looking at various funding options for social care, how much...

Blog

Did funding cuts in health and social care budgets lead to excess mortality in England?

Blog

Does the latest research into the impact of austerity in health and social care on mortality...

Blog

Why were nurse bursaries removed?

Blog

The surprise election has reignited the debate over the removal of student nurse bursaries, only a...

Briefing

The social care funding gap: implications for local health care reform

Briefing

This briefing offers an analysis of the size of the gap in adult social care funding in England – at...

Blog

Mental health care reform in Wales

Blog

The Health Foundation’s latest analysis of the funding and demand pressures facing the NHS in Wales...

Research report

The path to sustainability

Research report

This report analyses the demand and cost pressures facing the NHS in Wales up to 2019/20 and in the...

Research project

Fiscal sustainability of the NHS in Wales

Research project

This project will provide medium- and long-term projections of spending pressures facing the NHS in...

Blog

Will removing bursaries for student nurses actually lead to more nursing staff?

Blog

Demand pressures on the NHS rise every year. To cope with these pressures and provide the same...

Kjell-bubble-diagramArtboard 101 copy

Get social

Our briefing reveals the devastating and lasting impact of COVID-19 on the more than 4 million people asked to shie… https://t.co/UyH6IHIaxE

Follow us on Twitter
Kjell-bubble-diagramArtboard 101

Work with us

We look for talented and passionate individuals as everyone at the Health Foundation has an important role to play.

View current vacancies
Artboard 101 copy 2

The Q community

Q is an initiative connecting people with improvement expertise across the UK.

Find out more