This invitation to tender is open for application until 30 April 2021.

  • We are looking to commission a supplier to develop a model (or models) to project future adult social care demand, workforce supply and output.
  • The model will sit within the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre (Research and Economic Analysis for the Long-term). The REAL Centre provides independent analysis and research to support better long-term decision making in health and social care. Its aim is to help health and social care leaders and policymakers look beyond the short term to understand the implications of their funding and resourcing decisions over the next 10-15 years.
  • We anticipate bids of approximately £250,000 inclusive of VAT and expenses. We will consider bids that set out what might be achievable with different budget constraints (up to a maximum of £300,000).
  • Deadline for responses: Friday 30 April, 17.00

The REAL Centre (Research and Economic Analysis for the Long-term) is a new specialist unit within the Health Foundation that will work with a network of external academic partners. It will produce independent projections, research and analysis, strongly rooted in robust quantitative modelling, to help ensure the long-term sustainability of health and social care in the UK. This tender is for a key project to develop the Centre’s quantitative modelling of adult social care.

The work described within this tender is one phase of a multi-phase, multi-disciplinary approach to developing a suite of health and social care supply and demand projection models. This suite of models aims to answer questions about health and social care that cannot be answered by other approaches. This tender is to work in partnership with the REAL Centre to develop a model (or models) to project future adult social care demand, workforce supply and output.

Full details of the specification are detailed in the Invitation to Tender.

The supplier will be appointed in July 2021, to start work in August. We expect the activity to take place over the following two years.

How to apply

If you are interested in submitting a bid, please go through the following steps to complete your application.

1. Important supporting information

All applicants must read the Invitation to Tender in full before completing the online application form.

2. The application form

All bids must be completed and submitted via our online system AIMS.

You need to first register on AIMS before you can complete the online application form. It is important that you register as your organisation rather than as an individual. Please include the contact details for the person you wish to be the primary contact for your bid.

Full guidance on accessing, completing and submitting your bid via AIMS can be found in the Applicants user guide. We recommend that you keep a copy of this manual to hand, to refer to, while you complete your bid.

3. Deadlines

The deadline for online bid is 17.00 on Friday 30 April 2021. We will not accept late submissions.

Due to the uncertain impact of COVID-19 and related restrictions on our workforce we have not set out a precise timeline for the stages of the process following submission of bids. We will aim to complete these stages as quickly as possible. The timing will also depend on the number of bids. Once bids have been submitted we will communicate a timeline for the next stages to all bidders.

Once the bids are received the next stages will be as follows:

  • assessment and shortlisting of bids
  • invitations to interview for shortlisted bidders and communication of outcome to unsuccessful bidders
  • interviews of shortlisted bidders
  • communication of final decision to the successful bidder
  • start date to be agreed following final decision (this would be as soon as practicable and subject to agreement on the contract for the work).

Shortlisted organisations will need to be available for an interview on one of 5, 6, or 7 July 2021.

If you have any queries about the programme or application process, email:

Further reading


REAL Centre


The Health Foundation’s REAL Centre is here to support better long-term decision making in health...

REAL Centre

Data analysis

Social care funding gap

Data analysis

Our estimates of what it would cost to stabilise and improve adult social care in England.

REAL Centre
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