This project was funded between August 2019 and August 2020.

  • Run by Hywel Dda University Local Health Board.
  • Aiming to strengthen the analytical skills and awareness at Hywel Dda University Health Board, and improve forecasting of patient demand to reduce ‘black days’.
  • Will implement a standard process for data-mining (CRISP-DM) and develop collaboration between senior decision-makers and analytical teams.

‘Black alerts’ in hospitals are when the predicted demand for services exceeds the available capacity. Improving forecasting of patient demand can help in reducing the number of ‘black days’ that occur. However, carrying out this forecasting requires advanced analytical skills.

This project aims to strengthen the skills of staff at Hywel Dda University Local Health Board (HDdULHB) by introducing applied analytical techniques (including machine learning and data-mining), with a focus on using these skills and staff experience to describe and understand ‘black days’.

By increasing analytical awareness at the health board, senior decision-makers will understand the need for applied analytical projects, and best use will be made of the existing analytical teams to solve the more complex problems at the health board.

The project team will implement the cross-industry standard process for data-mining methodology (CRISP-DM) at HDdULHB. This will enable the development of an interface that facilitates collaboration and the effective exchange of information between senior decision-makers and the analytical teams.

Using longer-term reporting cycles to solve problems will develop the organisation’s capabilities and desire to undertake projects, and will inform and guide decision-makers during service reconfiguration.

The common goal of the project – the identification and development of a ‘black day’ model – will help improve patient demand forecasting, which in turn will ensure services have capacity (such as staff coverage, specialty availability and number of beds) to meet demand. This will lead to improved patient experience and patient care.

Contact information

For more information about this project, please contact Sebastian Neale, Lead Specialist Senior Analyst, Hywel Dda University Health Board.

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