Modelling elective pathways across the Devon health economy to better inform strategic STP decision-making

Northern Devon Healthcare NHS Trust

  • Fronted by Northern Devon Healthcare NHS Trust on behalf of Devon Sustainability and Transformation Partnership (STP), which includes South Devon and Torbay and Devon CCGs, Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust, Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust, and Plymouth Hospitals NHS Trust.
  • Project to inform service transformation in elective care. 
  • Will use innovative statistical techniques to develop high-level models of the elective care system to predict and inform the impact of proposed changes on patient flow, outcomes and cost.
  • Running from January 2018 to March 2019.

The Devon health and social care system is tasked to save more than £200 million in 2017/18 through service transformation, particularly within elective care. 

This project will look to inform these changes by developing high-level models of the current elective care system. This will reveal how proposed changes are likely to impact patient pathways, patient flow and pathway cost, across acute, community and primary care. It will also enable predictions of the effect the changes will have on key metrics such as patient experience, safety, outcomes and waiting times.

The model will inform the Devon STP Planned Care workstream, which is responsible for the transformation of elective care across Devon. It will allow them to apply ‘what if’ scenarios – for example changes to the number of clinics or X-ray facilities for each setting, or changes to treatment regimes – and understand the cost savings, and effect on patient pathways and key metrics.

The project will involve defining the existing system, using activity throughout the patient pathway both in and out of hospital, and producing a model for expected attendances within a given timeframe, taking into account expected population growth, staff efficiency and bed usage. 

The work will give executives, senior managers and clinicians a wider understanding of the planned care system across Devon. It will help to create good working practices of employing models to predict and inform the effects of changing a service, before changes are made. 

Processes are in place to share the analytical learning around the Devon health care system, both in terms of conclusions and methodology and techniques.

The key findings will be published and recommendations made to the senior leadership of each organisation and the Devon STP.

Contact information

For more information about this project, please contact Nic Harrison, Principal Analyst, Northern Devon Healthcare NHS Trust.

About this programme


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