• This project will provide medium- and long-term projections of spending pressures facing the NHS in Wales, identifying the key risks to long-term fiscal sustainability of the health care system.
  • The work is carried out by the Economics team at the Health Foundation.
  • Results will be published in October 2016.

How to achieve long-term sustainability of the health care system is a fundamental question for all countries.

This is especially true for Wales, where the Health and Social Services budget accounts for 48% of the total devolved budget. Understanding the pressures facing the NHS in Wales – and the extent to which certain initiatives can reduce these pressures – is essential to help the government set appropriate budgets, and to NHS leaders to live within them.

By modelling trends across multiple services, we will provide long-term projections of spending pressures for the NHS in Wales to estimate the scale of fiscal pressure over the next 15 years to 2030/31. These pressures come predominantly from demographic changes, the rising number of people with chronic conditions and the rising costs of providing health care services. We will also report on pressures in the medium-term to 2019/20 (the period for which the total UK government budget, including the devolved budget for Wales, has been set) and identify the key risks that must be addressed to ensure the long-term fiscal sustainability of the NHS in Wales.

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