Health Foundation comment on NAO report on the NHS Long-Term Workforce Plan

Commenting on the National Audit Office’s report NHS England’s modelling for the Long Term Workforce Plan, Anita Charlesworth, Director of the REAL Centre at the Health Foundation, said:

'The publication of the Long-Term Workforce Plan was a major moment, marking a cross-party consensus on the scale of the staffing increases the NHS needs. Ahead of the forthcoming general election, all the political parties should commit to funding the expansion of workforce training it sets out.

'The NAO report mentions the importance of independent scrutiny. We believe that this should be enshrined in law so that the good intentions behind the Plan have legislative weight. More broadly, delivery of the plan will require additional funding not just for the expansion in training, but also for equipping staff to deliver care, and meeting the increased pay bill that will come with a larger workforce. It is also essential to boost retention by improving conditions and workplace cultures.

'We also support the recommendations the report makes to improve quality assurance processes – this should help to ensure that future analysis is as transparent and credible as possible.

'As noted by the NAO and our independent assessment, the modelling approach relies on optimistic assumptions about improving NHS productivity. But, as we have previously stated, this will be a pipedream without significant investment in capital and technology, which has lagged behind comparable countries for decades. The additional £3.4 billion for digital transformation announced in the March 2024 Budget is a welcome and significant start, if the money is actually spent as intended; capital and technology budgets have frequently been raided to cope with day-to-day spending pressures.

'Urgent action is also needed to support the social care workforce, where staff shortages are chronic and 1 in 5 care workers live in poverty. Without an equivalent plan for social care, the plan for the NHS could actually make the situation in social care even worse.'

Notes to Editors

In February 2023, the Health Foundation’s REAL Centre was asked by NHS England and Health Education England to undertake an assessment of the modelling process used to inform the projections in the long-term workforce plan. We were not asked to review the plan or any of the policies underpinning the projections. The assessment was based on NHS England’s modelling as of 17 February 2023 and took place over 2 weeks in February 2023.

We carried this out as an independent charity with the specific skills in workforce modelling. More information about our analysis is available here.

Media contact

Ash Singleton
ash.singleton@health.org.uk