How might COVID-19 affect the number of GPs available to see patients in England?
How might COVID-19 affect the number of GPs available to see patients in England?
6 August 2020
Key points
- NHS England has suggested that NHS staff at potentially higher risk from coronavirus (COVID-19) are risk assessed and have their activities adjusted accordingly, including ceasing face-to-face patient contact.
- In England, many GP practices have shifted to a ‘telephone first’ approach to providing patient care. But some people need face-to-face consultations for specific health problems, and all patients should have access to face-to-face consultations if clinically necessary to provide good care.
- We apply risk scoring to calculate the number of GPs practising in England who are likely to be at high or very high risk of death from COVID-19. We estimate that of the 45,858 GPs in our sample, 7.9% are at high or very high risk. This is likely to be a conservative estimate.
- GPs at very high risk of death from COVID-19 are more likely to be working in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation.
- Almost one in ten GP practices (9.4% or 639 out of 6,771) are run by a single GP. These practices serve 2,497,159 patients and are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 related disruption should the single-handed GP fall ill or die of COVID-19.
- Almost one in three of these single-handed GP practices (32.7%, or 209 out of 639) are run by a GP we estimate to be at high or very high risk from COVID-19. If these GPs were to not see patients face-to-face, 710,043 patients would be left without face-to-face GP appointments. Single-handed GP practices in areas of high socioeconomic deprivation are more likely to be run by a GP at higher risk of COVID-19.
- There is a timely opportunity to provide additional support to keep GPs and patients safe. CCGs must ensure that they are aware of gaps in face-to-face provision of core general practice services, and must work with practices and primary care networks to find solutions. This may require additional funding to ‘buy in’ locum support, or to compensate GPs for providing additional cover.
GPs at very high risk of death from COVID-19 are more than three times as likely to be working in the most deprived CCGs in the country than they are to be working in the most affluent CCGs (Figure 2).
Figure 2
Almost one in ten GP practices (9.4% or 639 out of 6,771) are run by a single GP. These practices serve 2,497,159 patients. Of these single-handed GP practices, nearly one in three (32.7%) are run by a GP at high or very high risk from COVID-19. The socioeconomic distribution of single-handed GP practices displays a steep deprivation gradient, and these surgeries are far more likely to be located in less affluent areas (Figure 3).
Single-handed practices run by GPs classed as being at very high risk are more than four times as likely to be located in the most deprived CCGs in the country as compared to in the most affluent CCGs. Put another way, there are 126,412 patients registered to single-handed GPs classed as being at very high risk working in the most deprived CCGs in the country. This is compared with 33,745 patients registered to single-handed GPs classed as very high risk located in the most affluent CCGs.
Figure 3
London may be particularly affected if GPs at high risk from COVID-19 restrict their patient-facing activities. We found that London has the highest proportion of GPs at very high risk from COVID-19 (5.2 very high risk GPs per 100,000 population), of single-handed GP surgeries run by a GP at very high risk (0.37 very high risk single-handed GP practices per 100,000 population) and patients registered to these single-handed practices (1,160 patients per 100,000 population registered to single-handed practices run by a GP likely to be at high risk of COVID-19).
Figure 4
Further reading
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