Spring Budget, public health grant and NHS pay offer: what do they add up to for health and care?

1. Economic inactivity and ill health

Alongside the legacy of the pandemic and the ongoing impact of the cost-of-living crisis, a key priority for the Chancellor is to get the UK’s stuttering economy moving. 

Increasing poor health and economic inactivity is a concern for policymakers in part because it restricts labour supply and economic growth. Economic inactivity in the UK has increased by around 700,000 people since before the pandemic and the main reason for economic inactivity reported by people aged 50 to 69 is ill health. 

In the Spring Budget, the Chancellor focused attention on reforms to increase employment. For disabled people and those in ill health, he announced a new ‘Universal Support’ programme in England and Wales. This aims to support people with disabilities and long-term sickness to find and stay in work. 

There are currently 6.7 million working-age people out of the labour market and over a third (37%) say this is due to a long-term health condition. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that only 10,000 more people will enter employment in 2027/28, out of 0.6 million people with long-term sickness who say they want to return to work. 

Boosting future labour force participation also means keeping people healthy and in work in the first place. Government should work with business and commit to an industry-led taskforce focused on supporting a healthy workforce. Investing in the health of the nation will not only improve people’s health and wellbeing but also deliver economic growth.

For social care the Budget offered little hope for a sector on its knees. A social care reform implementation plan is expected soon, but it remains to be seen whether any new funding will be attached. Without long term investment or fundamental reform social care will continue to be a threadbare safety net for so many people in need.

5. No signs of the long-awaited workforce plan

Expectations that the NHS workforce plan would materialise did not come to fruition – with the Chancellor saying only that it was ‘coming soon’ in his Budget statement, and rumours that it may be delayed to later in the year. 

Meanwhile, the latest NHS Staff Survey results show that only a quarter of the NHS workforce say there are enough staff to do their jobs properly and a third feel burnt out. Increasingly, staff say they’re unhappy with the standard of patient care and feel they lack the resources they need to do their job and there are also worrying findings of increasing levels of discrimination experienced by staff from black and ethnic minority groups. Our recent analysis of a Commonwealth Fund survey of GPs in 10 high-income countries also tells a similar story, with UK GPs among the most overworked, stressed and burnt out of the countries surveyed. 

The NHS workforce plan is desperately needed and, as these results illustrate, must focus on retention as much as recruitment by making the NHS a better place to work and a more attractive employer. And with the NHS and social care workforces closely entwined and both experiencing severe staff shortages, a workforce plan for social care is long overdue and must not be neglected. 

This content originally featured in our email newsletter, which explores perspectives and expert opinion on different health or health care topic each month.