Interpreting the latest life expectancy data

How long people are likely to live – their life expectancy – is commonly used as an indicator of the health of a country and its population. Used in combination with other measures such as GDP, it can help to capture the prosperity of a country now and its future potential, and is an important signal of social progress. 

There are different ways to measure life expectancy. Thorough understanding and analysis of these measures gives an insight into how health has changed and is changing across the UK and serves as a reminder of the UK’s long-term life expectancy challenge. Here, we use period life expectancy and cohort life expectancy to look at the latest trends and projections for the UK’s life expectancy (or life expectancy for parts of the UK when whole UK data is not available), how life expectancy varies across areas, and how inequalities have changed over time. 

Period life expectancy is the most appropriate measure to summarise mortality rates in a given year and assess the impacts of one-off events. This is the measure that best demonstrates stalling improvements in life expectancy in the UK over the past decade and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also the measure used to compare trends over time and across different geographies. It clearly highlights how in the UK inequalities are wide, entrenched and have been exacerbated during the pandemic.  

Cohort life expectancy is the best indicator of how long people will be expected to live in the future. It is revised every 2 years by the ONS and revisions over time clearly indicate that although people born now are still expected to live for longer than previous generations, they are not expected to live for as long as previously thought. 

Through the 20th century and at the start of the 21st century, period life expectancy at birth increased relatively rapidly, from an average of 46 years in the early 1900s to around 80 years by 2011. This was due to reductions in mortality rates influenced by, for example, improvements in living standards, public health initiatives and infectious disease control. 

However, since 2011, improvements in mortality rates have slowed, causing life expectancy gains to stall. In the years between 2011 and 2019, period life expectancy at birth in the UK remained at around 79 years for males and 83 years for females. While there has been some debate as to the cause of this slowdown, much of the discussions have focused on individual drivers in isolation, such as the impact of flu, slowing CVD mortality or austerity policies. It is more likely that the slowdown in mortality improvements is the result of a number of factors operating simultaneously across different populations. 

Figure 1 shows trends in period life expectancy at birth in the UK since 2000, including the stalling improvements in life expectancy since 2011 and the fall in life expectancy as a result of excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Trends for individual constituent countries are similar. In 2021–23, period life expectancy at birth was 78.8 years for males and 82.8 years for females. Both are still lower than in 2017–19, where period life expectancy was 79.3 years for males and 83.0 years for females, but higher than in 2020–22, as the effect of COVID-19 on mortality reduced. 

The ONS uses 3-year averages as its headline measure, to smooth relatively small year-to-year fluctuations caused by events such as a colder than average winter or higher rates of flu, both of which tend to cause higher than average mortality rates.  

Although subject to fluctuations, single-year estimates are helpful to unpick more recent trends. As Figure 1 shows, after falling sharply in 2020, single-year estimates recovered in 2021 and 2022, but progress was slower between 2022 and 2023. In absence of more recent life expectancy data, analysis of mortality data is helpful to understand how life expectancy might change next. Analysis of 2024 mortality data suggests that progress in return to pre-pandemic life expectancy levels will continue.  

With the most acute effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality rates largely in the past, the question now is whether the UK can achieve improvements in life expectancy similar to those before 2012 or whether life expectancy improvements will continue stagnating.  

Figure 2 highlights the scale of the challenge. If the pre-2012 trend had continued, by 2023 life expectancy at birth in the UK could have been 82.7 years for males and 85.6 years for females – 3.7 years higher for males and 2.7 years higher for females. 

Although pre-pandemic improvements in mortality slowed down across most comparable countries, the slowdown has been particularly rapid and pronounced in the UK. With a relatively low life expectancy compared with many other OECD countries, there is room for improvement for UK life expectancy. Some of this headroom stems from inequalities in life expectancy across the UK. 

Looking beyond the headline figures, wide inequalities in life expectancy exist across the UK.  

Figure 3 shows the variation in life expectancy across local authorities and regions in Great Britain. Local authorities in the south of England have on average the highest life expectancies, and local authorities in the north of England and Scotland have the lowest. All local authorities in the North East have life expectancies below the average in Great Britain. Life expectancy at birth is the lowest in Glasgow City at 75.9 years and the highest in Hart in the South East at 84.7 years. 

Geographic inequalities across the UK were already stark a decade before the pandemic. The gap in life expectancy at birth between the highest and lowest 10% of local authorities in Great Britain was 5.0 years in 2011–13. By 2017–19 this gap had widened to 5.4 years. By 2021–23 it had widened further to 5.8 years.  

Geographic inequalities exist for male and female life expectancies across local authorities in Great Britain. However, these inequalities have changed over time. In 2011–13 the gap in life expectancy at birth was lower for females at 4.7 years, compared with 5.5 years for males. By 2017–19 the gap had widened to 5.0 years for females and 5.8 years for males. By 2021–23 the gap had widened even further to 5.6 years for females and 6.2 years for males. 

On average in England, Scotland and – to some extent – in Wales, the most deprived areas have lower life expectancy than the least deprived areas. 

Figure 4 shows how these inequalities have changed over time. 

Inequalities already existed in 2011–13 but were further exacerbated in the decade prior to the pandemic. Between 2011–13 and 2017–19, life expectancy slowed down further, or even fell, in the most deprived areas. 

• In England, life expectancy increased for males by just 0.2 years for the 10% most-deprived local authorities, compared with 0.6 years in the 10% least-deprived local authorities. The difference was even greater for females, with a decrease of 0.3 years for the 10% most-deprived, compared with an increase of 0.5 years in the 10% least-deprived.
• In Scotland, life expectancy for males decreased by 0.6 years for the 20% most-deprived local authorities, compared with an increase of 0.8 years in the 20% least-deprived local authorities. The difference was again greater for females, with a decrease of 0.8 years for the 20% most-deprived, compared with an increase of 1.2 years in the 10% least-deprived.
• In Wales, life expectancy for males was unchanged for the 10% most-deprived local authorities, compared with an increase of 0.5 years in the 10% least-deprived local authorities. Life expectancy for females decreased by 0.1 years for the 10% most-deprived, compared with an increase of 0.2 years in the 10% least-deprived. However, for Wales, changes in life expectancy for the middle of the distribution do not appear to be as closely associated with deprivation.  

In addition, during the pandemic, although life expectancy decreased both in the least and most deprived areas, the most deprived areas suffered larger falls. Note that comparable data for Wales for the period 2011–13 to 2018–20 are not available, so the pandemic period has been excluded for Wales analysis. 

• In England, life expectancy for males decreased by 0.6 years for the 10% most-deprived local authorities, compared with a decrease of 0.3 years in the 10% least-deprived local authorities. For females, there was a decrease of 0.4 years for the 10% most-deprived, compared with a decrease of 0.1 years in the 10% least-deprived. As the latest data available is 2018–20, this underestimates the full impact of the pandemic.
• In Scotland, life expectancy for males decreased by 0.8 years for the 20% most-deprived local authorities, compared with a decrease of 0.4 years in the 20% least-deprived local authorities. For females, there was a decrease of 0.6 years for the 20% most-deprived, compared with a decrease of 0.3 years in the 10% least-deprived. 

As a result of these trends, the gap between the most and least deprived areas grew in the three constituent nations. 

• In England, the gap between the 10% most deprived and the 10% least deprived local areas grew from 9.0 years in 2011–13 to 9.7 years in 2018–20 for males and from 6.9 years in 2011–13 to 8.0 years in 2018–20 for females.
• In Scotland, the gap between the 20% most deprived and the 20% least deprived local areas grew from 10.2 years in 2011–13 to 11.9 years in 2019–21 for males and from 6.8 years in 2011–13 to 9.0 years in 2019–21 for females.
• In Wales, the gap between the 10% most deprived and the 10% least deprived local areas grew from 8.6 years in 2011–13 to 9.0 years in 2017–19 for males and from 7.2 years in 2011–13 to 7.5 years in 2017–19 for females. 

Overall, these data show that the inequalities in life expectancy we see today have existed across the UK for a long time and have worsened over the past decade and throughout the pandemic. It will be important to monitor life expectancy in the most and the least deprived areas over the next few years, to understand whether the increased gap in life expectancy during the pandemic will carry on in the long term.

Stalling improvements in mortality rates affect not only current life expectancy but also projections of how long people are expected to live in the future.  

Figure 5 shows that cohort life expectancy projections improved up to projections based on 2010 population estimates but have since been revised down. Although future cohorts are still expected to live for longer than previous cohorts, they are not estimated to live as long as previously expected. Under the most recent 2022-based projections, life expectancy for someone born in 2023 is now 86.7 years for males and 90 years for females. This is 5.6 and 5.5 years lower, respectively, than what was expected under 2010-based projections. 

Improvements in life expectancy occur because a greater share of the population lives to older ages. Figure 6 shows successive improvements in cohort survival rates since the start of the 20th century – while successive generations are living longer, the gains are diminishing. Improvements in survival rates are shown as the curves moving further to the top right of the chart, as larger proportions of the population are surviving to older ages. 

The drivers for improvement have been different over time. For cohorts born between 1905 and 1950, improvements in survival rates were due to big gains in infant mortality, driven by public health measures such as childhood immunisations.  

Future opportunities to improve life expectancy lie primarily in reducing health inequalities, as well as continuing to improve mortality rates at older ages.  

On health inequalities, while half of the cohort born in 2005 is now expected to live for at least 90 years, compared with 65 years for those born in 1905, there is still wide variation within cohorts. 77% of males expect to live to 65–69 in the most-deprived areas in England, compared with 93% in the least-deprived areas.  

Reducing health inequalities and increasing longevity at older ages is not just about improving health care towards end of life but it also means making sure health is maintained through the lifetime by ensuring the building blocks of health are in place – such as decent housing, good work and an adequate income.  

In the aftermath of the high mortality rates from the pandemic, the main question is what will happen to life expectancy from here? Will it continue to rise further than pre-pandemic levels, moving towards international counterparts? Will improvements return to the low levels of growth seen in the decade leading up to the pandemic? More importantly, what will happen to inequalities in life expectancy – will the gap close between different areas of the UK? Scrutiny and understanding of these issues has been limited since the COVID-19 pandemic. 

We must also remember that, in addition to how long people live, the quality of people’s life – measured through healthy life expectancy – is extremely important. Although we are yet to see the latest data on healthy life expectancy for the whole of the UK, data for England and Wales confirm that inequalities in healthy life expectancy are much wider than for life expectancy and have worsened since 2011–13. As of 2021–23, there was an 18-year gap in healthy life expectancy at birth for both males and females. This is 15% (for females) and 22% (for males) higher than it was in 2011–13. As part of its health mission, the government has committed to halve the gap in life expectancy between the richest and poorest regions in England. As variation in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy is much wider between and within local authorities, health inequality targets may need to be more granular than at the regional level to effectively target need.  

The current government faces an uphill challenge in improving UK citizens' health and life expectancy. Good health and wellbeing are the UK's most precious assets. They enable people to achieve their potential, fuel the economy and help build a stronger society. However, historically weak income growth, pressure on diminished public services and strain on health and care services do not point to sudden future improvements.  

Rebuilding the nation's health will be crucial to the Government's ambitions for achieving economic growth. The government must focus on prevention through all our public services, ensuring that everyone can live well for longer. This will require concerted cross-government action on policy areas beyond the NHS and social care that are vital for people's health, such as housing, education and employment.