A model that forecasts future demand on hospital and community services wins the Florence Nightingale Award for Excellence in Health and Care Analytics

A team that developed a model for forecasting future demand on hospital and community services at local, regional, and national levels has been announced as the winner of the 2025 Florence Nightingale Award for Excellence in Health and Care Analytics. 

Another team that used comparative data covering 13 specialist children’s hospitals in England to reveal crucial paediatric trends in young people’s health was highly commended. 

The award, now in its sixth year, is jointly given by the Royal Statistical Society and the Health Foundation. It recognises practitioners in applied health care data analytics who have gone the extra mile in delivering innovative improvements for the health care system.

• Winner: The Strategy Unit, in collaboration with The New Hospital Programme, for their project 'Transforming planning: a common open-source model for forecasting hospital demand'. The project developed the first nationally consistent, open-source model for forecasting future demand on hospital and community services. Built on over 140 million patient-level records, the model supports planning at local, regional, and national levels. Now adopted by NHS England, it is reshaping health care infrastructure planning across the UK. The judges were impressed by the statistical robustness of the project, both in terms of the methodologies employed and the strong commitment to transparency. They also commended the project's impact, especially in driving improvements for patients.
   
• Highly commended: The Children’s Hospital Alliance and Edge Health project, 'Collaborative benchmarking: driving shared learning and responsive children and young people’s services'. The project addressed long-standing gaps in comparative data for specialist children's hospitals. They launched the first dedicated benchmarking programme across 13 leading paediatric centres in England. By combining detailed patient-level activity with public data on capacity, workforce and inequalities, the programme reveals critical paediatric trends often hidden in adult-focused reporting. The judges were impressed with the data-informed improvements, strategic decision-making and its effective communication to decision-makers. They commended how it has strengthened advocacy for children and young people’s services at all levels.

Charles Tallack, Director of Research and Analysis at the Health Foundation, said: ‘The effective use of data and analytics is crucial to improving the health and care system. These two projects are excellent examples of ambitious collaborations that improved health and care by harnessing data in innovative ways. Each team meaningfully involved and engaged patients and the public in their work, and published a wealth of information and resources in easily accessible forms. These impactful pieces of work are brilliant examples of how data analysts are tackling real world problems and benefiting patients. Congratulations to both teams.’

Dr Sarah Cumbers, Chief Executive of the Royal Statistical Society, said: ‘This year’s winners exemplify the power of data to drive meaningful change in our health and care services. Their work not only demonstrates statistical excellence, but also shows how transparent, collaborative analytics can lead to better outcomes for patients and communities across the UK.’

The teams received their awards during a ceremony held in London on 15 July 2025.