Digitising the NHS and adult social care
What could it cost?
Key points
- A shift from analogue to digital is at the heart of the government’s ambitions for NHS reform in England. The forthcoming NHS 10-year plan and the 2025 Spending Review, as well as the Casey Commission into social care, offer an opportunity to achieve a step-change in digitisation, improving productivity, patient experience and outcomes, and staff experience.
- We commissioned PA Consulting to estimate what investment will be required to make the shift to a digital NHS and social care system. The research made estimates for NHS services across all care settings as well as publicly funded residential adult social care in the four UK nations.
- This research found that significant investment will be needed in the UK over the next 5 years and beyond. Over the next 5 years, this includes around £8bn capital spending (of which £5bn is for England), £3bn one-off revenue spending (£2.25bn for England) and £2bn recurring annual revenue spending each year (£1.5bn for England). Recurring costs will be ongoing beyond the 5-year period that was the focus of this research.
- Direct financial investment in technology is only part of the story. It needs to be accompanied by investment in implementation and ongoing support for training, maintenance and optimisation.
- While it may be possible to cover some of this from existing budgets, it’s highly likely that the government will need to commit additional funding in order to successfully realise the shift from analogue to digital.
- Debates about digitisation often assume the resources required will be capital spending, but these findings highlight the importance of revenue spending – not just to support initial implementation, but also for ongoing software subscriptions, maintenance costs, staff training and optimisation work to realise the full benefits of technology.
• We set out three key actions for government and policymakers:
- Set out a clear, transformative and durable vision for digitisation in health and social care
- Support the vision for digitisation with the required funding
- Alongside funding, develop a plan for realising the benefits of digitisation.
- Policymakers will also need to address the significant gaps in information on the costs and benefits of digitisation that this research has highlighted. It will be critical to know how much is being spent on digitisation in the NHS and social care, whether these resources are being well spent and whether the potential of technology is being realised in practice.
Figure 1
To make sense of these digital ambitions across the four UK nations and to understand the associated investment requirements, PA Consulting grouped the various digital policies into broad ‘cost themes’ – such as foundational infrastructure, patient records, corporate IT and cyber security. They then identified the separate ‘cost items’ that would need to be procured to deliver these themes – such as local networks, data centres and EPRs. The research then estimated what investment would be required to close the gap between the current state of digitisation and recent policy ambitions.
Box 1:
- Foundational technical infrastructure
- EPR and specialist EPR
- Digital social care/shared care record
- Remote and virtual care
- Primary care
- Public facing solutions and systems
- Digital skills/confidence and digital inclusion
- Data and analytics solutions and platforms
- Corporate IT
- National platforms and programmes
- Digital leadership and governance
- Safe practice and cyber security
- Sustainability and net zero
- Other.
Full details of the approach and methodology is set out in the report published by PA Consulting, although we summarise the approach and some of the key limitations below (Box 2). The assumptions behind the research were also tested, validated and improved through a series of expert workshops and in-depth conversations with policymakers and health and care staff with a digital technology remit in England, Scotland and Wales during summer 2024.
Box 2: Approach and limitations
While a plethora of individual policies and announcements have been published over the years, there is no clear and consistent vision for digitisation in the NHS and social care. In many cases, policy documents are unclear on the specific standards of digitisation that need to be achieved. In some cases, such as for domiciliary care, there are virtually no published policies at all. The research therefore required some interpretation and piecing together of these policies, as well as drawing on data and experience from the NHS and social care, as well as other sectors.
To make sense of these digital ambitions across the four UK nations, PA Consulting grouped the various digital policies into broad ‘themes’ such as foundational infrastructure, patient records, corporate IT and cyber security. They then identified the separate ‘items’ that would need to be procured to deliver these themes, such as local networks, data centres and EPRs.
It is also important to note that the research estimated the cost of delivering the four UK nations’ existing digital ambitions. It did not consider questions such as whether these are the right set of policies, or whether the delivery infrastructure is designed in a way that will achieve the promised benefits or value for money.
As well as a lack of a clear and consistent vision for digitisation, the research also identified a lack of good-quality, publicly available data on the current state of digitisation. This was especially true of community health, mental health and adult social care services. There was also a paucity of comparative data to benchmark progress across the four UK nations and the regions within them.
To form a judgement on the present state of digitisation, PA Consulting therefore drew on a raft of individual documents, including England’s Digital Maturity Index, What Good Looks Like guidance (a framework to guide digital transformation) and integrated care system (ICS) digitisation plans to establish a starting point. They supplemented this by drawing on a range of sources, including evidence on:
- what digital solutions and technologies were already deployed and being used by the workforce and/or public
- what proportion of the NHS had completed, deployed or adopted technology (such as the proportion of trusts which had adopted EPRs)
- speaking to stakeholders and professionals to get their views on maturity, where information was unavailable or insufficient, eg for digital capabilities.
PA Consulting used a sample of cost data and published statements to estimate the cost of bridging the gap between existing levels of digitisation and recent policy ambitions in the UK for each of the components of digitisation they had identified. So, for example, this might mean using the average cost of existing EPR systems in trusts to estimate the costs for those trusts that would need a new EPR system to meet the government’s digital ambitions.
Again, the researchers were confronted by a lack of publicly available information. The majority of cost estimates were therefore derived from published ICS digital strategies and plans from England, backed up by data from other sources. This approach assumes that the information published in the ICS plans reviewed were broadly representative of what was required across England as a whole to achieve national ambitions.
There were no comparable cost data from the devolved administrations, so PA Consulting had to extrapolate from data for England. Regional health boards in the devolved nations typically have much smaller populations than ICSs in England, so PA Consulting specified a range of estimates for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. These reflect the uncertainty over what proportion of the costs of digitisation are relatively fixed, irrespective of population (such as designing an app) and those that vary with population size (such as laptops for staff).
Cost data was particularly scarce for adult social care, where the bulk of the evidence has come from a single ICS plan and was purely for the residential adult social care sector.
To turn the individual cost estimates into a realistic aggregate figure for delivering the government’s ambitions, PA Consulting made three further adjustments.
- First, complex and novel projects, such as those involving IT and new technology, can involve an ‘optimism bias’ towards project costs and duration, risking an overspend. Treasury guidance recommends increasing initial estimates by up to 200% to take account of this. PA Consulting divided each of the components of digitisation into low, medium and high risk of optimism bias – and adjusted the cost estimates accordingly. However, this approach only relates to project costs – not whether benefits will be realised (where optimism bias may be greater because of the mismatch between expectations for benefits realisation and reality.)
- Second, the phasing of implementation is unclear, so PA Consulting present estimates in 2024/25 prices that do not take account of inflation beyond this timeframe. In reality, governments have consistently been optimistic on timescales for implementation. There are also risks that the lack of competition in some sectors (such as suppliers of EPRs in primary care), the capacity of suppliers to deliver to time and specifications, and shortages of a suitably qualified digital workforce, could lead to sector-specific inflation. All of these could lead to costs higher than estimated here.
- Third, PA Consulting made assumptions about which costs of digitisation would count against capital budgets, which would be one-off revenue and which would represent ongoing revenue cost (such as software licences). These costs are to some extent fungible and the balance may vary over time as technology changes (eg cloud computing replacing data centres) or with procurement methods (whether you are buying equipment or buying a service). In the absence of data on either existing levels of revenue spend or what proportion of this could be redeployed, it is impossible to know the extent to which the PA Consulting revenue estimates represent an increase on what is spent on digitisation now. And without data on the revenue savings that could result from the adoption of digital technologies, we cannot say whether the net benefits are positive.
Box 3:
Capital funding is used for long-term investments, such as buildings and equipment. For digitisation, this might be for tangible items such as network cabling and computers, or intangible items such as certain software.
Revenue funding is used for the day-to-day running costs. As far as digitisation is concerned, this is often needed alongside investment in capital to support the use of new equipment or digital systems. This funding can be:
- One-off revenue, such as initial training costs to help staff adapt to new systems
- Recurring revenue, to cover ongoing costs such as for resources needed to effectively use and optimise technology, subscription costs for software and continued staff capability building.
Figure 2:
While this research has several limitations (see Box 2), it gives an indication of the scale of investment needed, as well as the type of investment – in particular the requirement of revenue investment (both one-off and recurring) to ensure that the benefits of investment in digital technologies can be fully realised. This is often overlooked in debates about digitisation, but will be critical.
Breaking this estimate down by cost theme and cost item highlights several important points that may have a bearing on how future digital spending could be apportioned.
Figure 3:
First, while attention is often focused on the cutting-edge possibilities of digital technologies, this analysis underscores that significant investment is still required to ensure the basic building blocks of digitisation are put in place. This includes investment in:
- Foundational technical infrastructure, such as networks and connectivity, software and hardware, and data storage solutions.
- Ensuring all trusts have an up-to-date EPR in place – not just for the small number of trusts still using paper records, but for the 55% of trusts that this research estimates may need to replace or upgrade their EPR system over the next 5 years.
- Digital social care records to enable CQC-registered providers to meet and then progress beyond the current target of 80% (originally set for 2024 and then pushed back to 2025), and shared care records.
- Corporate IT, covering systems and tools for internal business functions (such as HR and finance) and supply chain management, allowing staff to collaborate virtually, and tracking assets and resources.
- National platforms and programmes, including for the NHS App, Federated Data Platform and cyber security.
Second, achieving policy ambitions to deliver more technology-enabled remote monitoring and virtual care will require substantial funding – close to £1bn capital investment alone (see Figure 3). This includes telecare as well as the rollout of technologies through hospital at home (previously known as virtual wards), for which there has been a strong push since COVID-19.
Finally, while a detailed exploration was beyond the scope of the research, it became clear that there will be important interdependencies between investments in digitisation and other major policy ambitions. For example, for the NHS to meet its commitment to become net zero by 2045, for the emissions it controls as well as its wider supply chain, it will need to take several actions that relate to digitisation. This includes making existing digital systems more sustainable and ensuring that new technology meets net-zero goals as set out in the NHS Net Zero Supplier Roadmap. It also includes digital solutions that will enable the NHS and social care to become more sustainable, such as lower carbon digital infrastructure and energy management systems.
Is the estimate plausible?
The research provides an estimate of the cost of implementing recent policy ambitions for digitising health and adult social care, in the absence of an official figure. PA Consulting’s report sets out full details of the data and methodology used.
The estimate is broadly in line with some other recent work. For example, in 2020 the NAO estimated that the updated digital transformation strategy for the NHS in England would at the time cost £8.1bn to deliver. This included £2.2bn total of revenue funding. The NAO estimated a further £1.6bn would be required between 2019/20 and 2023/24 for the maintenance of core IT systems and services that support the day-to-day running of the NHS (sometimes called ‘live services’). They drew on an NHS England cost model based on data for 14 trusts. By drawing on published digital strategies and plans from several ICSs, PA Consulting’s research covers a wider sample.
PA Consulting’s estimate of costs, if broadly correct, would strongly suggest that the pace of digital spending would need to increase from recent years to deliver recent digital ambitions – although we cannot say exactly how large the difference is, as robust spending figures have not been published. When previous governments have made budget announcements, it is not always clear whether they include both local and national spending or both capital and revenue. But existing data – such as those included in the Darzi review and in the 2024 spring Budget announcement that £3.4bn investment in NHS technological and digital transformation over 3 years would double ‘central spend’ – suggest that present spending levels would definitely need to rise.
Similarly, on adult social care, PA Consulting’s estimate is significantly higher than the £150m over 3 years for ‘digital transformation’ announced in England in 2022, even though PA’s estimate only covers the residential care part of the adult social care sector.
Gaps in data and policy for digitisation
This research highlights significant gaps in publicly available information on the costs and benefits of digitisation. Given the focus across the UK’s nations on ensuring value for money in public spending, it is crucial to know not only how much is being spent, but whether NHS and social care resources are being well spent and whether the benefits of technology are being realised in practice. In order to make this assessment, gaps in data must be addressed by policymakers across the UK, if they are to secure value for money through digitisation. Significant gaps include:
- Data on current digital and IT investment: governments need to know whether they are spending enough on digitisation to secure value-for-money improvements in the NHS and social care budgets. This research has shown that the paucity of data on current digital spending makes it hard to understand the overall costs of digitisation in a precise way. It is also impossible to estimate how much of this will need to be on top of existing spending, compared with existing budgets or spending that may be reallocated from existing commitments.
To improve this picture, policymakers must collect and publish data on what is spent on digitisation, including both capital and revenue expenditure. Relatedly, a more comprehensive and clear definition of digitisation would help to identify what categories of data to collect.
- Data on the productivity impacts of digital technology: government needs to know whether it is securing the promised productivity benefits from its investment in digitisation in practice. This research focused on the total costs of achieving government digitisation aims, and did not attempt to calculate the benefits of these technologies, or the resulting cost savings. Fully assessing the value of digitisation and its impact on NHS and government budgets will require a detailed view of where digital technologies are being used and an assessment of their benefits and costs. This includes the productivity impacts of digital technology, including taking account of how long these might take to materialise.
- Policy and data gaps for social care: PA Consulting’s assessment of recent policy ambitions revealed big gaps around both what social care digitisation policy is and how it is being implemented. While this assessment was largely based on policy made by the previous government, there is limited detail on the current government’s approach, beyond committing to set standards for care technologies and joining up health and social care data in England. When estimating the cost of digitising social care, there were significant challenges in understanding the current and desired state of digitisation based on policy documents, and a lack of data to estimate the associated costs. PA Consulting’s modelling relies largely on the data from one ICS plan, and includes only residential adult social care due to lack of data and clear policies covering domiciliary care (which makes up around 40% of adult social care providers). The estimated cost to digitise social care is therefore likely to be a significant underestimate.
This partly reflects complexities of the social care system as a whole, with no nationally set budget for adult social care (as in the NHS) and a mix of public and private funding and provision – as well as inadequate funding, which has left the system with large numbers of vacancies and high staff turnover. Further, existing levels of connectivity, digital social care records and staff digital literacy within social care are generally behind those of the NHS, posing further challenges for digitisation.
This highlights the need for:
- greater clarity on the targets for digitisation in social care (including domiciliary care, where there is a major policy gap), who is responsible for implementation and how these improvements will be funded
- vastly improved data on the existing state of digitisation in social care and the costs involved to reach government targets.